Inflation 2026: Market Reduces Projection to 4% for Third Week in a Row

What the Focus Bulletin Says

The Focus Bulletin released by the Central Bank on Monday (01/26) showed the third consecutive reduction in inflation expectations for 2026. The market now projects that the IPCA will close the year at 4%, down from 4.02% the previous week and 4.06% at the beginning of the month.

The inflation target set by the National Monetary Council for 2026 is 3%, with a tolerance range of 1.5 percentage points — meaning the ceiling is 4.5%. The current projection is within the range but still above the center of the target.

Selic at 15%: The Weight of Interest Rates

The Selic rate remains at 15% per year, the highest level since July 2006. The market expects it to end 2026 at 12.25%, indicating a cycle of cuts throughout the year. Bank of America is even more optimistic, projecting the Selic at 11.25% by the end of the cycle.

High interest rates mean more expensive credit — mortgage financing, vehicle loans, and personal loans continue to have high rates. On the other hand, they make fixed income investments very attractive for investors.

Modest GDP Growth

The expectation for economic growth remains at 1.80% for seven consecutive weeks. It is not a recession, but it is also not robust growth. The dollar is still projected at R$ 5.50 by the end of the year.

What This Means for You

In practice, the Focus numbers show a scenario of cautious stability:

• Prices: inflation is easing, but it still erodes purchasing power. Organizing your budget using the 50/30/20 method helps absorb increases without compromising your financial health.
• Investments: with high Selic rates, instruments like the Treasury Selic and post-fixed CDBs continue to yield well. This is the time to strengthen your Future axis.
• Credit: avoid long installments and revolving debts. The cost of money is still very high.

ADXIS exists precisely to provide this clarity: knowing where your money goes before you spend, and making informed decisions.